TARIFFS

April 4, 2025

I try to be apolitical but there are times when I can’t restrain myself. This is one of those times. All that has been talked about for the past few weeks, in the media, and by the Trump Administration is Tariffs. Again, I realize that my view of the world may be different than the Baby Boomers, Gen Z or others, because I was born in 1938, and I remember the end of WW ll, the Korean “Conflict, ” Vietnam, the assassination of JFK, RFK and Martin Luther King, the Cuban Crisis, The Middle East Conflicts, the Afghanistan & Iran Conflicts, and the Japanese trade differences. There are many more, too many to mention!

As Doctor Morris Massey, a Professor of Marketing and Sociology, and a philosopher, states, “You Are What You Were, When.” In essence he says that one’s values, personality, motivation and fears are determined by your early life, good or bad, and are ingrained in us by the age of 8. They only change is if there is “a Significant Emotional Event.” What are Significant Emotional Events? They include those events mentioned above, as well as divorce, a traumatic health event, getting fired, having children, COVID-19, or 9-11. A Significant Emotional Event has the ability to change our fundamental belief and value system.

Anyone that has a basic understanding of economics, particularly supply & demand economics, knows that in a Global Economy, tariffs are “taboo.” We have had one foot in and one foot out of a true Global Economy for a number of years. The classic definition of a Global Economy is “economic activities conducted both within and between nations, including production, consumption, economic management … and trade of goods and services.”

For the past 50 years, manufacturing has gone to those countries where costs are lower and quality is generally higher. As a result, we have seen Japan, in the 1950’s & 1960’s rule the textile field. Today the textile industry is a main stay of the Vietnam economy, as well as India and China. Japan is now known for their electronics, automobiles and high technology industries.

Today, Japan has Free Trade Agreements with the European Union and the United Kingdom. They also have an arrangement with China on reduced tariffs. As a result they export over 22% of their GDP to China and 9.7% to the European Union. Exports to the United States amount to 20.6%. Japan imports 22.3% of their GDP from China and 10.4 % from the European Union. Japan only imports 10.5% of their GDP from the United States. That is all about to be changed.

In a Global Economy, tariffs are a handicap to all. By imposing the level of tariffs that the United States has announced, will only cost the U.S. consumer more in absolute dollars, and position us as an “isolationist country.” We will have no trading partners or allies. Manufacturing will not return because the cost benefit formula does not work. At the present time, some of the commodities that we import include clothing, automobile parts, semi-conductors, consumer electronics, machine tools, household appliances, pharmaceuticals, healthcare equipment and machines, and fruits & vegetables ( including coffee and bananas).Items that we can’t produce or manufacture will still have tariffs and the consumer will pay.

Exports include aircraft, agricultural products, and oil & gas, among others.

If other countries continue to impose reciprocal tariffs on the United States, we could see more commercial aircraft sales moving to the European Union’s AirBus SE Corporation. Our agricultural industry could lose more of their business to South American Countries.

It was reported that if Apple’s I- Phone was produced in the United States, it would cost the consumer $3.500. versus $1,000.The cost of a new automobile is expected to rise between $6,000. and $8,000. dollars. It is the consumer that will have to foot the bill for these tariffs. The result could be another “great recession.” Our economy is expected to go into a recession in the very near future if these tariffs continue.

Our current President appears to be delusional when it comes to the results of these tariffs. He listens to no one. It has been reported that his Secretary of the Treasury is looking to relinquish his post. I was always taught to surround myself with folks who were smarter and brighter and listen to them before you made a decision. Obviously, that isn’t the case here.

The stock market has plummeted in the past few days to levels that no one could have predicted. Individual 401 K and other retirement funds have lost a significant amount of money, as have individual investors. There appears to be no recovery on the horizon as long as tariffs are in effect. The premise that this short-term pain will result in long-term gain is just fundamentally wrong. Between all of the firings at the Federal level and the resulting cut backs at industry firms, I expect that we will see the unemployment rate rise to a level that we haven’t seen since the “great depression.”

Stephanie Rule, a financial reporter for MSNBC, says that our President is not trusted in a business sense. He is a great at branding and marketing, but where he has a shortfall is in business generally. His various companies have declared bankruptcy six times. One was a casino in Atlantic City. Who bankrupts a casino? She states that he is known for not holding to contracts that he has entered into, nor does he stand by any deals that he has agreed to. His business reputation is “underwater.”

It has been reported that with the income that tariffs will generate, our President wants to do away with any income tax on those who make $150,000. or less. That individual tax amount has been estimated at approximately $22,000. Many may think that this is a positive, but tariffs could cost them that much, or more, on the increased cost of their consumer products.

Where are our politicians with respect to tariffs. The Republican party has been hijacked and no one is prepared to challenge this situation. The President is a “bully” and all are succumbing. As far as the Democrats are concerned , there is no one leading the party. They are unorganized, like “a ship without a rudder.” There appears to be a lack of morality or ethics among all.

It has been reported that today, approximately 40% of all U.S. citizens have passports, while only 30% of Congress has passports. I don’t know if these statistics are still accurate, but if they are, heaven help all of us. How can someone represent us in Congress that have never left the United States? They have no idea how the world really operates. They have not interfaced with our allies or the people of other countries. They have no real understanding of N.A.T.O. or the various agreements that we have signed over the years with our allies.

We have a chance to change the congressional faces in the November 3, 2026 mid-term elections. Will it be too late, and will we have the fortitude to admit that we made a mistake with this President?

Jess Sweely

Madison, VA.